How is the current crisis in Europe playing out? - part I

Hi guys,

another extract of a conversation considering Europe's current situation, my stuff, as known, in red:

I also believe we are incredibly close to a black swan event that will make the people in control realize that they aren't in control at all.  I think the origin of this in Europe will be that the Greek people reject membership in the EU.  I get a sense that they are beginning to say to themselves "as long as I'm going to starve to death, I'd rather starve to death as a Greek".  I think nationalism is deeper than the politicos currently comprehend.  We are also noticing bank runs in the PIIGS.  What are people doing with their Euros?  I suspect not many are buying PMs because they feel they will need the cash to live on soon?  How is the situation affecting tourism?  I am afraid it will be affected by the unrest and that will only exacerbate the situation this summer.  (I heard 30% decline in Greek bookings from German tourists).

Black Swan event: Definitely close. I actually believed the new JPM “loss” would be the event, after listening to your interview I’m not that sure any longer whether they played or where played (by the EURO banks not buying “their sovereign debt”).

Nationalism: Big point, especially since the EU in Brussels overdid so much with their intended killing of the nation state. The pendulum is coming back and I think it will rather overshoot towards nationalism. Big ethnic fights against the Muslim minorities included.

Bank runs: I get rumors of such stuff from all over the EURO zone, they seem to just print (real paper) money like crazy to avoid the banks having to close and even some bigger panic setting in.